The countdown to Hollywood’s biggest night is on, and the 2025 Oscar race has been anything but predictable—especially in the Best Picture category.
When "Emilia Pérez" began its festival and theatrical run, it seemed unstoppable, racking up 13 nominations—just shy of an all-time record. But then controversy hit when old tweets from its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, resurfaced, throwing its meticulously planned campaign into turmoil.
That shake-up left the door open for "Anora" to take the lead, despite being completely shut out at January’s Golden Globes. The indie darling bounced back with major wins from the Producers, Directors, and Writers Guilds—strong indicators of Oscar success.
Then, out of nowhere, "Conclave" emerged as a real threat, claiming top honors at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the BAFTAs.
Best Director: Sean Baker’s Moment?
Sean Baker ("Anora") is a major contender after winning the Directors Guild of America (DGA) award. However, some insiders believe Brady Corbet ("The Brutalist"), who triumphed at the BAFTAs, is the real frontrunner.
If "Anora" secures Best Picture, it’s hard to imagine Baker losing this category.
Best Actor: A Showdown Between Brody and Chalamet
The biggest battle in this category is between Adrien Brody ("The Brutalist"), who has dominated the season, and Timothée Chalamet ("A Complete Unknown"), who threw the race into chaos with a surprise win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
Best Actress: A Three-Way Toss-Up
This category is wide open. Many insiders are rooting for Demi Moore ("The Substance"), who delivered powerful acceptance speeches while winning at SAG, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes. That momentum could push her across the finish line.
Mikey Madison ("Anora") also has strong support after taking the BAFTA and Independent Spirit Awards. Plus, she leads a Best Picture nominee, which could give her an edge.
And then there’s Fernanda Torres ("I’m Still Here"), whose late-season surge could lead to a shocking upset. This is one of the most unpredictable races of the night.
Best Supporting Actor:
Kieran Culkin ("A Real Pain") has dominated every major award in this category. It’s hard to see the Oscars passing up the chance to let him give another memorable acceptance speech.
Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña’s Moment
Despite the controversy surrounding "Emilia Pérez," Zoe Saldaña has remained a strong contender, winning big at the Golden Globes and maintaining momentum. After years of starring in blockbusters like "Avatar" and "Guardians of the Galaxy," she finally has a role that showcases her full range. This could be her night.
Best Original Screenplay: A Path to Best Picture
Historically, Best Picture winners tend to win in the screenplay categories, and "Anora" is the clear frontrunner here.
Best Documentary Feature: A Surprise Win?
The safe bet is "Porcelain War," given the Academy’s recent trend of honoring films about resistance. However, "No Other Land," a gripping documentary on the West Bank, has built strong word-of-mouth. With many Academy members only now catching up on the nominees, "No Other Land" could be the upset of the night.
Best International Feature: Can "I’m Still Here" Pull Off an Upset?
"Emilia Pérez" once seemed unbeatable in this category, but its stumble has given "I’m Still Here" a shot at victory. If its late-season momentum holds, it could walk away with the Oscar.
Best Animated Feature: It seems to be advantage "The Wild Robot" to take home the Oscar after garnering two additional nominations for Best Original Score and Sound. Dark horse (or cat in this case), "Flow", the indie but grown-to-be-mighty animation from Latvia could possibly abort "Robot's" chances.
Short Film Categories: The Best Bets
- Best Animated Short: "Magic Candies"—its touching story should resonate with voters.
- Best Documentary Short: The gut-wrenching "I Am Ready, Warden" is a strong contender though "Incident" with its devastating real-life footage makes it tough to ignore.
- Best Live-Action Short: The alarming situation on girl child labor reflected in "Anuja" has a good shot but "The Last Ranger"—a visually stunning and emotionally powerful film, could take the prize.
Best Cinematography: Indie vs. Blockbuster
"The Brutalist," made on a budget of under $10 million, looks like it cost five times that amount. Its breathtaking cinematography has earned widespread praise, making it a strong contender against big-budget films like "Dune: Part Two."
Best Original Score: "The Brutalist" Leads the Pack
With "Challengers" shockingly absent from the category, "The Brutalist" and its sweeping, haunting score by Daniel Blumberg seem like the clear choice.
Best Original Song: "El Mal" Holds Its Ground
Even though "Emilia Pérez" has lost momentum, its fiery musical number "El Mal" remains the standout in this category. The film’s controversy isn’t likely to affect its chances here.
Best Sound: A Nostalgic Win for Bob Dylan?
"Dune: Part Two" is technically flawless, but "A Complete Unknown" breathes new life into Bob Dylan’s classic songs. Academy voters, particularly older ones, may be eager to reward it.
Best Editing: "Anora" Has the Edge
Editing awards often go to the Best Picture frontrunner unless there’s a flashier alternative. With no such contender this year, "Anora" looks like the safe pick.
Best Production Design: The Power of Architecture
"The Brutalist" has a built-in advantage—its story is literally about architecture. Its striking production design, including an unforgettable library, gives it an edge over competitors like "Dune: Part Two" and "Wicked."
Best Costume Design: "Wicked" Takes the Prize
Up against sequels, a horror film, and a papal thriller, the fantasy extravagance of "Wicked" is likely to stand out.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: "The Substance" for the Win
Recent winners in this category have been tied to Best Actress winners. Whether or not Demi Moore takes home the trophy, her film’s grotesque transformation sequences should give "The Substance" an advantage over "Wicked."
Best Visual Effects:
The first "Dune" took home this Oscar, and its sequel boasts equally seamless effects. Expect a repeat victory.
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