Final Predictions

The final predictions for the 2023 Oscar predictions are pretty clear. Unless there is a major upset most insiders (and myself) feel that we know what’s going to win and why.

The leader for Sunday is the indie darling Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) for Best Picture (and more) but there is a strong contender which is  All Quiet on the Western Front.

BEST PICTURE 

PREDICTED WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once

All Quiet on the Western Front
Top Gun: Maverick
Elvis
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Tár
Avatar: The Way of Water
Women Talking
Triangle of Sadness

Seemingly out of nowhere, Netflix’s German-language war drama, All Quiet on the Western Front, surged and it cleaned up at the BAFTAs and earned nine Oscar nominations. 

Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) has 11 nominations (the most of any film). It won at Critics Choice, the Globes and it won the top prize at all four major guilds—SAG, PGA, DGA, and WGA. This was not easy to pull off. A lineup like this has only happened four other times (American Beauty, No Country for Old Men, Slumdog Millionaire, and Argo) and all four films won best picture. 

BEST DIRECTOR 

PREDICTED WINNER: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Todd Field, Tár
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

At the start of the campaign season, it was assumed that Steven Spielberg’s Fabelmans was a no-brainer win; it’s not. 

BEST ACTOR

PREDICTED WINNER: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living

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BEST ACTRESS

PREDICTED WINNER: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

This could sway to Cate Blanchett, Tár but there will be no wild card like with the nomination of the unknown Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) in a film that’s barely made any money and most people have never even heard of.

If Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once wins she will be the second woman of color to ever win this category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

PREDICTED WINNER: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin 
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

PREDICTED WINNER: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau, The Whale

This is a challenging prediction and I hope that I am wrong. When the season started the front-runner was Angela Bassett. And (Wakanda Forever). She won the Globe but now insiders are telling me that the momentum has waned. It started to sway when Jamie Lee Curtis won the SAG Award and Kerry Condon the BAFTA. 

Taking a hard look at the SAG Awards, their winner in this category has aligned with the eventual Oscar winner every year since 2010, excluding 2019 (when Emily Blunt won the SAG and Regina King took the Oscar).  I hope I am wrong and Angela Bassett wins. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

PREDICTED WINNER: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd Field, Tár
Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

“The Daniels” — Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert —won the Writers Guild. That leaves Triangle of Sadness and The Banshees of Inisherin (not eligible for WGA nominations) as possible upsets.